FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.5 – 175.83

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.9 ±9

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 3.54Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 149.71Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 85.25Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.8 ±11

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 13.33Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 28.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 134.21Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2969, 118, 2587

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2969, 118, 2587

Auto

50.4 21%

Teleop

125.3 52%

Endgame

63.4 27%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7616, 4587, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7616, 4587, 8576

Auto

30.7 17%

Teleop

83.3 47%

Endgame

62.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score238.5pts

Blue projected score175.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.7
Score range: 147–268
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 162.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.9Season APEX290.8

50.4Auto30.7

125.3Teleop83.3

63.4Endgame62.2

95Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	41
teleop	111	27
endgame	40	68
foul	5	0
total	223	136

Result

Final score

223 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree