FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.23 – 147.3

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

151 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 80.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.3 ±12.4

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 12.42Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 88.77Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11132Rambotics, Inc.

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 29.04Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.1 ±14

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 82.71Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 55.81Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3728Momentum

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 8.78Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9181, 5829, 11132

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9181, 5829, 11132

Auto

14.7 12%

Teleop

89.9 73%

Endgame

19.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8515, 127, 3728

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8515, 127, 3728

Auto

47.0 34%

Teleop

50.8 36%

Endgame

42.2 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.2pts

Blue projected score147.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.1
Score range: 101–176
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 161.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.3Season APEX273.1

14.7Auto47

89.9Teleop50.8

19.3Endgame42.2

51Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	64
teleop	65	162
endgame	39	62
foul	5	0
total	151	288

Result

Final score

151 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 80.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree