FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.98 – 107.41

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.2 ±10.5

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 37.93Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 103.05Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 52Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.6 ±12.8

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 75.49Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6488RoboRams

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 18.12Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 13.8Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7312, 9512, 11242

/ 100 compat

Projected

193 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7312, 9512, 11242

Auto

42.8 22%

Teleop

106.9 55%

Endgame

44.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 457, 6488, 5070

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 457, 6488, 5070

Auto

22.8 23%

Teleop

44.1 44%

Endgame

34.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193pts

Blue projected score107.4pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.6
Score range: 78–222
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 161.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.2Season APEX236.6

42.8Auto22.8

106.9Teleop44.1

44.2Endgame34.2

46Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	29
teleop	115	76
endgame	59	42
foul	0	0
total	221	147

Result

Final score

221 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree