FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.94 – 80.68

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300 ±11.7

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 5.07Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 94.76Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 54.11Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235 ±11

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 28.44Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 7.01Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 45.23Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10904, 324, 3481

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10904, 324, 3481

Auto

25.8 17%

Teleop

73.2 49%

Endgame

51.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7691, 7616, 2585

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7691, 7616, 2585

Auto

11.8 14%

Teleop

37.1 45%

Endgame

34.1 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.9pts

Blue projected score80.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.3
Score range: 52–183
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 160.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300Season APEX235

25.8Auto11.8

73.2Teleop37.1

51.5Endgame34.1

64Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	20
teleop	143	85
endgame	57	60
foul	0	0
total	224	165

Result

Final score

224 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree