FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.14 – 237.19

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.1 ±13.9

3728Momentum

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 11.49Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 9.5Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 80.15Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.5 ±11.7

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 130.98Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11132Rambotics, Inc.

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 25.05Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 81.16Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3728, 2969, 3735

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3728, 2969, 3735

Auto

29.1 29%

Teleop

30.7 30%

Endgame

41.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8576, 11132, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8576, 11132, 5427

Auto

48.3 21%

Teleop

141.9 61%

Endgame

41.8 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.1pts

Blue projected score237.2pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136
Score range: 72–266
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 160.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.1Season APEX332.5

29.1Auto48.3

30.7Teleop141.9

41.3Endgame41.8

89Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	52
teleop	24	159
endgame	27	79
foul	0	0
total	80	290

Result

Final score

80 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree