FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.72 – 140.79

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

160 – 226

Prediction missed · off by 72.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.6 ±12.7

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 90.55Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 110.65Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 18.52Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.9 ±10.7

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 13.82Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 82.77Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 44.2Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8515, 9512, 5986

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8515, 9512, 5986

Auto

56.0 26%

Teleop

106.0 49%

Endgame

55.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2882, 5829, 11242

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2882, 5829, 11242

Auto

22.5 17%

Teleop

58.3 44%

Endgame

50.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score219.7pts

Blue projected score140.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.9
Score range: 112–249
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 159.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.6Season APEX413.9

56Auto22.5

106Teleop58.3

55.5Endgame50.5

43Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	65
teleop	75	114
endgame	50	47
foul	5	0
total	160	226

Result

Final score

160 – 226

Prediction missed · off by 72.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree