FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.08 – 215.75

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.4 ±9.8

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 83.19Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 56.56Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 70.33Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.3 ±11.7

7091KnightOwls

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 0.2Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 125.55Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 90Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 457, 3481, 127

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 457, 3481, 127

Auto

36.1 17%

Teleop

112.5 54%

Endgame

59.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7091, 8576, 2587

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7091, 8576, 2587

Auto

33.8 16%

Teleop

116.7 55%

Endgame

63.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score210.1pts

Blue projected score215.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.7
Score range: 178–248
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 177.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.4Season APEX310.3

36.1Auto33.8

112.5Teleop116.7

59Endgame63.6

96Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	33
teleop	108	125
endgame	59	77
foul	0	0
total	206	235

Result

Final score

206 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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