FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.59 – 65.85

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.2 ±11.2

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 11.74Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 133.2Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 86.65Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 138.2 ±12.2

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 20.24Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 25.98Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 19.63Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9181, 3847, 2587

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9181, 3847, 2587

Auto

37.4 16%

Teleop

141.6 62%

Endgame

51.1 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5070, 3676, 5908

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5070, 3676, 5908

Auto

17.2 28%

Teleop

30.7 50%

Endgame

13.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.6pts

Blue projected score65.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 165.7
Score range: 37–261
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 160.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.2Season APEX138.2

37.4Auto17.2

141.6Teleop30.7

51.1Endgame13.9

38Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	4
teleop	192	13
endgame	35	11
foul	15	0
total	258	28

Result

Final score

258 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree