FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

375.97 – 51.43

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

367 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.7 ±10.5

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 134.28Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 130.1Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 111.59Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.2 ±11.2

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 12.34Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 0.9Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 38.19Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3847, 8576, 9512

/ 100 compat

Projected

376 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3847, 8576, 9512

Auto

59.5 16%

Teleop

222.7 60%

Endgame

88.7 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5986, 7616, 11242

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5986, 7616, 11242

Auto

22.8 45%

Teleop

-2.5 0%

Endgame

30.0 60%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.77 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score376pts

Blue projected score51.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 324.5
Score range: 22–405
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 159.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.7Season APEX307.2

59.5Auto22.8

222.7Teleop-2.5

88.7Endgame30

48Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	31
teleop	230	31
endgame	85	48
foul	0	0
total	367	110

Result

Final score

367 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree