FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

190.45 – 219.79

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

186 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.5 ±11

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 82.63Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 30.19Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 77.63Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.2 ±9.9

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 54.17Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 148.68Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 16.94Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3735, 4587, 457

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3735, 4587, 457

Auto

38.8 20%

Teleop

99.0 52%

Endgame

52.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 127, 118, 5070

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 127, 118, 5070

Auto

52.0 24%

Teleop

118.7 55%

Endgame

43.6 20%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score190.5pts

Blue projected score219.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.3
Score range: 162–248
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 158.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.5Season APEX391.2

38.8Auto52

99Teleop118.7

52.5Endgame43.6

33Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	43
teleop	87	148
endgame	60	71
foul	0	0
total	186	262

Result

Final score

186 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree