FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.76 – 53.84

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 76.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.3 ±11.7

9307Spicy Chihuahuas

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 35.03Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 78.71Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 17.02Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 120.6 ±12.2

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 16.53Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 25.14Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 12.17Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9307, 324, 7691

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9307, 324, 7691

Auto

19.1 15%

Teleop

68.5 55%

Endgame

36.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9181, 5908, 2969

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9181, 5908, 2969

Auto

17.6 28%

Teleop

31.2 49%

Endgame

14.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.8pts

Blue projected score53.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.9
Score range: 25–160
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 158.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.3Season APEX120.6

19.1Auto17.6

68.5Teleop31.2

36.3Endgame14.9

82Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	14
teleop	149	10
endgame	76	2
foul	5	0
total	256	26

Result

Final score

256 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 76.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree