FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.25 – 121.56

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

184 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299 ±11.2

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 13.19Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 51.5Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 76.56Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.1 ±11.7

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 41.3Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 73.1Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 7.16Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9181, 127, 324

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9181, 127, 324

Auto

23.3 17%

Teleop

77.1 58%

Endgame

32.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7312, 457, 5986

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7312, 457, 5986

Auto

26.2 23%

Teleop

50.6 43%

Endgame

39.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.3pts

Blue projected score121.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.7
Score range: 93–170
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 158.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299Season APEX290.1

23.3Auto26.2

77.1Teleop50.6

32.9Endgame39.6

69Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	30
teleop	84	111
endgame	71	43
foul	0	0
total	184	184

Result

Final score

184 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree