FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.64 – 202.23

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.2 ±11.7

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 19.83Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 13.44Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 86.37Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.1 ±11.7

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 111.93Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6488RoboRams

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 18.54Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 71.76Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7616, 5070, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7616, 5070, 5427

Auto

32.9 28%

Teleop

49.1 41%

Endgame

36.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 324, 6488, 3735

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 324, 6488, 3735

Auto

31.1 16%

Teleop

103.2 52%

Endgame

63.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.6pts

Blue projected score202.2pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.6
Score range: 88–234
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 177.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.2Season APEX311.1

32.9Auto31.1

49.1Teleop103.2

36.7Endgame63.7

47Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	28
teleop	43	105
endgame	21	47
foul	0	0
total	90	180

Result

Final score

90 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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