FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.17 – 198.2

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.3 ±11.7

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 87.75Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 76.65Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9658Camber

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 41.77Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.2 ±14.9

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 134.6Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9307Spicy Chihuahuas

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 41.66Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3728Momentum

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 21.94Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3735, 5427, 9658

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3735, 5427, 9658

Auto

44.2 22%

Teleop

108.5 55%

Endgame

46.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8576, 9307, 3728

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8576, 9307, 3728

Auto

33.8 18%

Teleop

107.9 56%

Endgame

51.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.2pts

Blue projected score198.2pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8
Score range: 170–234
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 158.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.3Season APEX268.2

44.2Auto33.8

108.5Teleop107.9

46.1Endgame51.2

52Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	38
teleop	110	67
endgame	45	48
foul	0	20
total	200	173

Result

Final score

200 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree