FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

211.47 – 213.63

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 12.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.2 ±10.4

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 56.43Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 150.93Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 4.11Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.4 ±11.6

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 32.79Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 89.06Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 91.78Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3481, 118, 2882

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3481, 118, 2882

Auto

48.6 24%

Teleop

104.4 51%

Endgame

52.7 26%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4587, 8515, 231

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4587, 8515, 231

Auto

47.5 23%

Teleop

124.2 60%

Endgame

35.4 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211.5pts

Blue projected score213.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.2
Score range: 183–242
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 156.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.2Season APEX257.4

48.6Auto47.5

104.4Teleop124.2

52.7Endgame35.4

81Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	67
teleop	89	91
endgame	65	41
foul	15	25
total	226	224

Result

Final score

226 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 12.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree