FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.63 – 121.81

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

134 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 16.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324 ±11.2

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX -6.51Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9658Camber

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 38.97Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 75.17Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.4 ±12.2

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 77.01Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7091KnightOwls

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 7.18Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 37.62Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7616, 9658, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7616, 9658, 5829

Auto

10.2 10%

Teleop

45.1 45%

Endgame

45.6 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 457, 7091, 2585

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 457, 7091, 2585

Auto

18.0 15%

Teleop

60.4 50%

Endgame

42.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.6pts

Blue projected score121.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.2
Score range: 80–150
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 157.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324Season APEX243.4

10.2Auto18

45.1Teleop60.4

45.6Endgame42.9

116Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	28
teleop	47	44
endgame	57	43
foul	15	0
total	134	115

Result

Final score

134 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 16.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree