FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.07 – 160.41

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

320 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436 ±10.4

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 149.98Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 10.55Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 129.54Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.9 ±11.7

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 81.82Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 47.26Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 31.33Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 118, 9181, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 118, 9181, 8576

Auto

51.3 18%

Teleop

170.4 58%

Endgame

70.6 24%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2587, 7312, 5070

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2587, 7312, 5070

Auto

26.6 18%

Teleop

93.8 63%

Endgame

29.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score290.1pts

Blue projected score160.4pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.7
Score range: 132–318
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 155.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436Season APEX287.9

51.3Auto26.6

170.4Teleop93.8

70.6Endgame29.6

67Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	26
teleop	196	62
endgame	56	41
foul	0	0
total	320	129

Result

Final score

320 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree