FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.41 – 108.27

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

135 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.9 ±12.8

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX -0.24Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 83.1Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX -7.45Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.3 ±10.7

11132Rambotics, Inc.

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 21.87Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 48.8Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 37.6Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2882, 3735, 10904

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2882, 3735, 10904

Auto

22.7 32%

Teleop

19.4 27%

Endgame

28.7 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11132, 127, 11242

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11132, 127, 11242

Auto

30.4 28%

Teleop

61.0 56%

Endgame

18.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.4pts

Blue projected score108.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.9
Score range: 47–136
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 156.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.9Season APEX348.3

22.7Auto30.4

19.4Teleop61

28.7Endgame18.3

64Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	43
teleop	66	60
endgame	44	25
foul	0	20
total	135	148

Result

Final score

135 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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