FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.29 – 138.58

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.2 ±9.8

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 80.62Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 36.07Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 90.6Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.7 ±12.7

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 30.71Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 4.51Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 103.36Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3735, 11242, 231

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3735, 11242, 231

Auto

46.1 24%

Teleop

115.3 60%

Endgame

29.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2585, 9181, 9512

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2585, 9181, 9512

Auto

19.6 14%

Teleop

98.8 69%

Endgame

24.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score207.3pts

Blue projected score138.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.7
Score range: 111–235
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 429 vs event baseline 155.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.2Season APEX233.7

46.1Auto19.6

115.3Teleop98.8

29.7Endgame24.5

36Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	27
teleop	124	124
endgame	67	48
foul	0	0
total	230	199

Result

Final score

230 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree