FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.12 – 199.49

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.2 ±12.8

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 18.23Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 38.23Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX -3.34Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.9 ±11.7

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 152.18Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 5.42Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9658Camber

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 41.89Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7691, 5070, 10904

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7691, 5070, 10904

Auto

9.5 19%

Teleop

28.7 58%

Endgame

11.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 118, 5986, 9658

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 118, 5986, 9658

Auto

44.4 23%

Teleop

96.6 50%

Endgame

51.8 27%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.1pts

Blue projected score199.5pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.4
Score range: 25–227
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.2Season APEX318.9

9.5Auto44.4

28.7Teleop96.6

11.6Endgame51.8

18Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	49
teleop	8	79
endgame	0	50
foul	0	15
total	21	193

Result

Final score

21 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree