FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

171.25 – 189.53

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 92.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.8 ±9.9

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 47.61Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 82.6Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 41.04Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.4 ±11.2

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 149.84Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 15.73Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 23.96Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 127, 5829, 4587

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 127, 5829, 4587

Auto

22.7 13%

Teleop

98.0 57%

Endgame

52.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3847, 7616, 2882

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3847, 7616, 2882

Auto

38.1 21%

Teleop

86.8 48%

Endgame

54.4 30%

Strengths

· 3847 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.2pts

Blue projected score189.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.3
Score range: 143–218
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 158.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.8Season APEX393.4

22.7Auto38.1

98Teleop86.8

52.3Endgame54.4

69Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	9
teleop	89	5
endgame	36	21
foul	0	0
total	141	35

Result

Final score

141 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 92.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree