FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.26 – 132.43

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.2 ±11.7

6488RoboRams

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 15.72Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 28.89Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 126.65Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.4 ±14.4

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 21.22Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 82.88Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3728Momentum

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 28.33Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6488, 3676, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6488, 3676, 8576

Auto

22.8 13%

Teleop

99.8 56%

Endgame

54.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5908, 324, 3728

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5908, 324, 3728

Auto

28.3 27%

Teleop

28.3 27%

Endgame

49.7 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.3pts

Blue projected score132.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.8
Score range: 104–199
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 158.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.2Season APEX215.4

22.8Auto28.3

99.8Teleop28.3

54.6Endgame49.7

64Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	24
teleop	93	57
endgame	72	40
foul	0	0
total	191	121

Result

Final score

191 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree