FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

191.09 – 201.77

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.5 ±11

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 97.08Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 76.98Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 17.03Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.7 ±11

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 54.91Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 64.57Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 82.29Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9512, 457, 2969

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9512, 457, 2969

Auto

50.7 27%

Teleop

87.3 46%

Endgame

50.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3481, 5427, 8515

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3481, 5427, 8515

Auto

54.0 26%

Teleop

101.3 49%

Endgame

52.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.1pts

Blue projected score201.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.7
Score range: 163–230
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 156.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.5Season APEX350.7

50.7Auto54

87.3Teleop101.3

50.1Endgame52.3

53Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	64
teleop	93	105
endgame	83	52
foul	0	0
total	202	221

Result

Final score

202 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree