FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.89 – 93.69

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261 ±12.2

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 15.57Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 12.99Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 110.33Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.6 ±11.2

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 42.04Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9307Spicy Chihuahuas

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 34.51Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 17.14Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5070, 2585, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5070, 2585, 8576

Auto

19.8 15%

Teleop

95.7 71%

Endgame

19.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 127, 9307, 7616

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 127, 9307, 7616

Auto

22.4 22%

Teleop

43.1 43%

Endgame

35.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.9pts

Blue projected score93.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.2
Score range: 66–167
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 157.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261Season APEX276.6

19.8Auto22.4

95.7Teleop43.1

19.7Endgame35.6

43Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	21
teleop	165	58
endgame	65	36
foul	0	0
total	260	115

Result

Final score

260 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree