FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.35 – 172.77

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

310 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.5 ±9.8

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 14.85Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 140.95Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 63.55Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.2 ±10.4

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 80.89Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 66.91Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 24.97Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3676, 3847, 457

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3676, 3847, 457

Auto

47.0 21%

Teleop

111.2 50%

Endgame

65.2 29%

Strengths

· 3847 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 324, 231, 7312

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 324, 231, 7312

Auto

22.1 15%

Teleop

106.4 71%

Endgame

20.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score219.3pts

Blue projected score172.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.6
Score range: 145–247
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 153.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.5Season APEX357.2

47Auto22.1

111.2Teleop106.4

65.2Endgame20.7

57Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	36
teleop	158	119
endgame	63	53
foul	30	30
total	310	238

Result

Final score

310 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree