FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.15 – 131.83

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.9 ±9.9

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 10.81Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 146.01Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 70.33Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.9 ±13.3

9658Camber

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 24.78Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 19.72Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 87.33Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5908, 3847, 127

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5908, 3847, 127

Auto

36.3 16%

Teleop

137.0 61%

Endgame

52.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9658, 2882, 8515

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9658, 2882, 8515

Auto

43.1 35%

Teleop

53.0 43%

Endgame

26.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score227.2pts

Blue projected score131.8pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.3
Score range: 100–259
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 177.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.9Season APEX211.9

36.3Auto43.1

137Teleop53

52.1Endgame26

60Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	41
teleop	113	49
endgame	25	53
foul	0	0
total	175	143

Result

Final score

175 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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