FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.7 – 219.9

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

232 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 110.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.6 ±11.2

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX -2.7Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 6.29Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 127.11Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500.8 ±9

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 135.45Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 48.3Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 36.15Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5986, 7691, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5986, 7691, 3847

Auto

18.4 13%

Teleop

111.9 80%

Endgame

9.4 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 118, 457, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 118, 457, 5427

Auto

49.8 22%

Teleop

126.6 55%

Endgame

53.7 23%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.7pts

Blue projected score219.9pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.2
Score range: 105–246
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 572 vs event baseline 146.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.6Season APEX500.8

18.4Auto49.8

111.9Teleop126.6

9.4Endgame53.7

88Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	83
teleop	85	171
endgame	107	86
foul	0	0
total	232	340

Result

Final score

232 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 110.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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