FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.36 – 110.98

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.4 ±11.7

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 78.99Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7091KnightOwls

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 24.17Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 13.2Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.6 ±12.8

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 67.45Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX -7.69Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9307Spicy Chihuahuas

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 51.22Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 231, 7091, 7691

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 231, 7091, 7691

Auto

19.4 21%

Teleop

64.0 68%

Endgame

10.5 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3735, 5986, 9307

/ 100 compat

Projected

111 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3735, 5986, 9307

Auto

26.6 22%

Teleop

49.8 41%

Endgame

46.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.4pts

Blue projected score111pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.4
Score range: 84–143
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.4Season APEX218.6

19.4Auto26.6

64Teleop49.8

10.5Endgame46.1

48Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	21
teleop	67	71
endgame	4	26
foul	0	15
total	85	133

Result

Final score

85 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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