FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

145.43 – 197.36

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 51 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.1 ±11.7

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 4.8Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 99.24Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 41.39Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.1 ±11.7

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 26.46Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 99.33Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 71.57Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2969, 8576, 2882

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2969, 8576, 2882

Auto

37.2 28%

Teleop

59.7 45%

Endgame

36.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10904, 2587, 457

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10904, 2587, 457

Auto

25.4 12%

Teleop

107.2 51%

Endgame

77.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.4pts

Blue projected score197.4pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.9
Score range: 118–224
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 150.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.1Season APEX313.1

37.2Auto25.4

59.7Teleop107.2

36.2Endgame77.5

154Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	15
teleop	55	58
endgame	60	30
foul	0	0
total	153	103

Result

Final score

153 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 51 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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