FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

194.09 – 224.49

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.3 ±11.6

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 73.68Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 30.98Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 89.43Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467.3 ±12.4

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 50.32Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3728Momentum

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 33.37Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 140.8Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8515, 2585, 324

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8515, 2585, 324

Auto

35.6 19%

Teleop

88.5 46%

Endgame

68.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11242, 3728, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11242, 3728, 118

Auto

35.1 16%

Teleop

129.8 61%

Endgame

48.5 23%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.1pts

Blue projected score224.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 6%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.4
Score range: 167–251
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 149.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.3Season APEX467.3

35.6Auto35.1

88.5Teleop129.8

68Endgame48.5

106Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	61
teleop	71	48
endgame	49	75
foul	0	5
total	150	189

Result

Final score

150 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.