FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.44 – 102.92

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

56 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.7 ±12.4

7091KnightOwls

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 0.2Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 51.93Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 10.31Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.5 ±11.7

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 14.24Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 85.99Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 2.69Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7091, 11242, 9181

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7091, 11242, 9181

Auto

24.9 39%

Teleop

20.0 31%

Endgame

19.3 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10904, 231, 2969

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10904, 231, 2969

Auto

24.5 25%

Teleop

49.7 51%

Endgame

23.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.4pts

Blue projected score102.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.5
Score range: 30–135
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 177.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.7Season APEX193.5

24.9Auto24.5

20Teleop49.7

19.3Endgame23.5

69Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	23
teleop	12	16
endgame	25	11
foul	0	0
total	56	50

Result

Final score

56 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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