FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.7 – 215.59

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 94.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.1 ±14.9

3728Momentum

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX -2.01Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 8.75Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 49.96Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.3 ±10.4

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 86.89Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 108.22Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 20.48Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3728, 2882, 231

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3728, 2882, 231

Auto

23.5 40%

Teleop

27.6 47%

Endgame

7.9 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 457, 8576, 7691

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 457, 8576, 7691

Auto

33.3 15%

Teleop

137.5 64%

Endgame

45.2 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.7pts

Blue projected score215.6pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -158.9
Score range: 30–243
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 152.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.1Season APEX353.3

23.5Auto33.3

27.6Teleop137.5

7.9Endgame45.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	23
teleop	74	78
endgame	3	45
foul	75	0
total	176	146

Result

Final score

176 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 94.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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