FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.29 – 147.57

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 124.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.3 ±11

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX -25.02Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 13.42Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 51.89Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.4 ±11.6

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 71.38Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 39.97Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 36.22Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2969, 7616, 8515

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2969, 7616, 8515

Auto

21.0 47%

Teleop

2.0 4%

Endgame

22.1 49%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 324, 4587, 9512

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 324, 4587, 9512

Auto

21.3 15%

Teleop

73.6 53%

Endgame

43.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.3pts

Blue projected score147.6pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.3
Score range: 14–174
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 147.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.3Season APEX292.4

21Auto21.3

2Teleop73.6

22.1Endgame43.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	36
teleop	46	138
endgame	59	93
foul	0	0
total	169	267

Result

Final score

169 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 124.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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