Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
80.41 – 126.48
36%64%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
200 – 158
Prediction missed · off by 75.6 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.5 ±11.2
Season APEX 180.1Event APEX -3.86Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 57.47Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 26.8Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.1 ±13.9
Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 68.25Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 0.76Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 57.47Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11242, 457, 9307
50
/ 100 compatProjected
80.4 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 11242, 457, 9307
Auto
19.7 24%
Teleop
31.4 39%
Endgame
30.1 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 2587, 3728, 3481
65
/ 100 compatProjected
126.5 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 2587, 3728, 3481
Auto
20.9 16%
Teleop
67.4 53%
Endgame
39.1 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 2
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score80.4pts
Blue projected score126.5pts
Red win probability36%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 69%, blue 68%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -46.1
- Score range
- 55–151
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
383.5Season APEX289.1
19.7Auto20.9
31.4Teleop67.4
30.1Endgame39.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 53 | 23 |
| teleop | 98 | 74 |
| endgame | 49 | 61 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 200 | 158 |
Result
Final score
200 – 158
Prediction missed · off by 75.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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