FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

311.84 – 185.71

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.8 ±9.1

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 160.47Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 57.21Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 94.16Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.6 ±12.2

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 101.08Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 36.43Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9307Spicy Chihuahuas

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 48.2Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 118, 2585, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 118, 2585, 5829

Auto

51.0 17%

Teleop

175.1 57%

Endgame

79.3 26%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9512, 3676, 9307

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9512, 3676, 9307

Auto

30.0 17%

Teleop

94.1 52%

Endgame

56.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score311.8pts

Blue projected score185.7pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.1
Score range: 154–344
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 177.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.8Season APEX245.6

51Auto30

175.1Teleop94.1

79.3Endgame56.2

88Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	26
teleop	203	49
endgame	56	43
foul	0	0
total	291	118

Result

Final score

291 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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