Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183 – 105.94

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 4.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.5 ±9.3

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 35.46Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 116.01Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 31.53Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.5 ±11.7

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 20.42Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 30.25Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 55.27Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9418, 1296, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

183 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9418, 1296, 10014

Auto

26.2 15%

Teleop

89.4 52%

Endgame

57.1 33%

Strengths

· 1296 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9080, 6672, 2687

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9080, 6672, 2687

Auto

21.1 21%

Teleop

57.2 57%

Endgame

21.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183pts

Blue projected score105.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.1
Score range: 84–205
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.5Season APEX225.5

26.2Auto21.1

89.4Teleop57.2

57.1Endgame21.2

6Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	21
teleop	101	31
endgame	41	17
foul	0	35
total	176	104

Result

Final score

176 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 4.5 pts

Match videos

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