Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.16 – 100.22

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±10.5

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 73.05Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 13.99Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 75.12Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.1 ±11.6

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 36.29Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 40.12Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 23.81Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 624, 4610, 2689

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 624, 4610, 2689

Auto

44.7 28%

Teleop

88.1 55%

Endgame

27.1 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2728, 436, 5103

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2728, 436, 5103

Auto

18.1 19%

Teleop

44.1 47%

Endgame

30.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.2pts

Blue projected score100.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.9
Score range: 78–184
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.5Season APEX264.1

44.7Auto18.1

88.1Teleop44.1

27.1Endgame30.9

12Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	23
teleop	65	23
endgame	41	14
foul	0	15
total	160	75

Result

Final score

160 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 pts

Match videos

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