Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

302.67 – 174.07

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

390 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 72.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 597.7 ±9.3

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 7.37Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 166.8Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 128.5Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.5 ±9.3

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 31.99Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 113.03Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 29.05Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5503, 2468, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5503, 2468, 148

Auto

50.8 17%

Teleop

164.8 57%

Endgame

75.4 26%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9418, 1296, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9418, 1296, 10014

Auto

27.1 16%

Teleop

89.2 54%

Endgame

49.5 30%

Strengths

· 1296 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score302.7pts

Blue projected score174.1pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.6
Score range: 153–324
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 622 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

597.7Season APEX602.5

50.8Auto27.1

164.8Teleop89.2

75.4Endgame49.5

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	23
teleop	213	90
endgame	106	99
foul	20	20
total	390	232

Result

Final score

390 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 72.6 pts

Match videos

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