Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.54 – 111.83

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 90

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.6 ±10.5

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 30.09Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 38.7Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 25.75Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.8 ±10.4

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 58.05Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 17.15Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 36.63Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8749, 9506, 2789

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8749, 9506, 2789

Auto

21.9 24%

Teleop

35.9 40%

Endgame

32.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 418, 8769, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 418, 8769, 11178

Auto

17.9 17%

Teleop

58.0 54%

Endgame

30.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.5pts

Blue projected score111.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.3
Score range: 74–133
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.6Season APEX399.8

21.9Auto17.9

35.9Teleop58

32.2Endgame30.9

35Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	31
teleop	94	32
endgame	23	27
foul	15	0
total	169	90

Result

Final score

169 – 90

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 pts

Match videos

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