Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
122.36 – 94.36
59%41%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
69 – 131
Prediction missed · off by 45 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.8 ±10.5
Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 10.5Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 21.54Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 90.32Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.1 ±11.6
Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 34.12Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91Event APEX 38.35Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 21.89Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9121, 2714, 2881
62
/ 100 compatProjected
122.4 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 9121, 2714, 2881
Auto
18.4 15%
Teleop
68.2 57%
Endgame
33.7 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2728, 436, 5103
51
/ 100 compatProjected
94.4 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 2728, 436, 5103
Auto
16.1 17%
Teleop
42.2 46%
Endgame
34.3 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.26
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score122.4pts
Blue projected score94.4pts
Red win probability59%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 35%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 28
- Score range
- 73–143
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
397.8Season APEX264.1
18.4Auto16.1
68.2Teleop42.2
33.7Endgame34.3
1Consistency8
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 16 | 27 |
| teleop | 45 | 56 |
| endgame | 3 | 18 |
| foul | 5 | 30 |
| total | 69 | 131 |
Result
Final score
69 – 131
Prediction missed · off by 45 pts
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.