Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.41 – 102.87

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

179 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±10.5

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 71.9Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 14.68Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 74.83Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.5 ±11.7

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 19.39Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 29.47Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 54.01Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 624, 4610, 2689

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 624, 4610, 2689

Auto

45.6 29%

Teleop

87.6 55%

Endgame

25.5 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9080, 6672, 2687

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9080, 6672, 2687

Auto

20.3 21%

Teleop

56.6 59%

Endgame

18.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161.4pts

Blue projected score102.9pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.5
Score range: 82–182
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.5Season APEX225.5

45.6Auto20.3

87.6Teleop56.6

25.5Endgame18.3

12Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	22
teleop	94	33
endgame	37	26
foul	5	5
total	179	86

Result

Final score

179 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts

Match videos

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