Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.06 – 108.93

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.5 ±9.3

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 33.13Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 113.91Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 30.02Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.8 ±10.4

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 57.23Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 16.12Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 35.58Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9418, 1296, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9418, 1296, 10014

Auto

28.1 17%

Teleop

88.3 53%

Endgame

50.2 30%

Strengths

· 1296 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 418, 8769, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 418, 8769, 11178

Auto

14.7 14%

Teleop

59.1 57%

Endgame

29.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.1pts

Blue projected score108.9pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.1
Score range: 88–198
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.5Season APEX399.8

28.1Auto14.7

88.3Teleop59.1

50.2Endgame29.9

15Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	32
teleop	90	52
endgame	47	34
foul	0	5
total	160	123

Result

Final score

160 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 pts

Match videos

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