Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.91 – 100.57

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

335 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 35.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 597.7 ±9.3

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 5.05Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 163.62Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 125.24Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.6 ±10.5

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 31.53Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 40.81Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 28.23Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5503, 2468, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5503, 2468, 148

Auto

49.1 17%

Teleop

150.2 53%

Endgame

84.7 30%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8749, 9506, 2789

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.6 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8749, 9506, 2789

Auto

21.2 23%

Teleop

38.5 41%

Endgame

34.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score293.9pts

Blue projected score100.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.3
Score range: 80–315
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 115.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

597.7Season APEX409.6

49.1Auto21.2

150.2Teleop38.5

84.7Endgame34.4

33Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	27
teleop	217	27
endgame	38	16
foul	20	0
total	335	70

Result

Final score

335 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 35.8 pts

Match videos

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