Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

158.1 – 183.72

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±10.5

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 72.03Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 12.11Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 73.96Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.5 ±9.3

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 35.52Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 116.64Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 31.56Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 624, 4610, 2689

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 624, 4610, 2689

Auto

45.2 29%

Teleop

80.4 51%

Endgame

30.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9418, 1296, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9418, 1296, 10014

Auto

26.4 15%

Teleop

91.2 52%

Endgame

58.5 33%

Strengths

· 1296 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.1pts

Blue projected score183.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.6
Score range: 136–206
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 122.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.5Season APEX602.5

45.2Auto26.4

80.4Teleop91.2

30.8Endgame58.5

24Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	19
teleop	39	59
endgame	18	80
foul	15	45
total	118	203

Result

Final score

118 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Match videos

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