Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.01 – 182.1

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.6 ±10.5

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 37.82Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 45.25Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 32.94Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.5 ±9.3

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 35.09Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 115.9Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 31.11Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8749, 9506, 2789

/ 100 compat

Projected

116 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8749, 9506, 2789

Auto

25.7 23%

Teleop

53.5 49%

Endgame

30.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9418, 1296, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9418, 1296, 10014

Auto

27.3 16%

Teleop

91.4 53%

Endgame

54.7 32%

Strengths

· 1296 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116pts

Blue projected score182.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.1
Score range: 94–204
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.6Season APEX602.5

25.7Auto27.3

53.5Teleop91.4

30.8Endgame54.7

31Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	20
teleop	66	90
endgame	61	86
foul	25	0
total	193	196

Result

Final score

193 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 pts

Match videos

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