Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

317.15 – 161.51

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

328 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 597.7 ±9.3

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 12.67Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 171.81Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 132.67Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±10.5

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 72.98Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 13.51Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 75.02Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5503, 2468, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5503, 2468, 148

Auto

50.5 17%

Teleop

173.2 57%

Endgame

80.5 26%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 624, 4610, 2689

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 624, 4610, 2689

Auto

45.9 29%

Teleop

83.8 53%

Endgame

29.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score317.2pts

Blue projected score161.5pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 155.6
Score range: 140–339
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 120.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

597.7Season APEX323.5

50.5Auto45.9

173.2Teleop83.8

80.5Endgame29.9

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	41
teleop	183	61
endgame	93	41
foul	0	0
total	328	143

Result

Final score

328 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 pts

Match videos

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