Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.07 – 106.67

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 264.1 ±11.6

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 34.85Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 38.9Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 22.32Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.6 ±10.5

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 34.74Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 42.12Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 29.81Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2728, 436, 5103

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2728, 436, 5103

Auto

18.7 21%

Teleop

41.0 47%

Endgame

28.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8749, 9506, 2789

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8749, 9506, 2789

Auto

24.3 24%

Teleop

45.9 46%

Endgame

30.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.1pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.6
Score range: 74–129
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 120.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

264.1Season APEX409.6

18.7Auto24.3

41Teleop45.9

28Endgame30.4

16Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	35
teleop	50	101
endgame	24	34
foul	10	5
total	109	175

Result

Final score

109 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 pts

Match videos

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