Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.99 – 95.1

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 39.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.1 ±12.8

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 50.29Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7125Tigerbotics

Season APEX 31.5Event APEX -6.3Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 30Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 134.3 ±11.7

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 14.81Rank 33Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 50.29Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 30Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9080, 7125, 2687

/ 100 compat

Projected

74 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9080, 7125, 2687

Auto

12.7 19%

Teleop

31.8 49%

Endgame

21.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3240, 10518, 6526

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3240, 10518, 6526

Auto

14.3 18%

Teleop

43.5 54%

Endgame

22.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74pts

Blue projected score95.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.1
Score range: 56–113
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 97.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.1Season APEX134.3

12.7Auto14.3

31.8Teleop43.5

21Endgame22.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	13
teleop	43	7
endgame	24	3
foul	0	0
total	81	23

Result

Final score

81 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 39.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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