Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

185.7 – 194.71

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 71.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368 ±10.5

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 42.65Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 15.65Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 127.4Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.5 ±11.2

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 8.32Rank 33Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 63.14Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 123.25Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9506, 4610, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9506, 4610, 148

Auto

23.2 13%

Teleop

98.5 55%

Endgame

58.3 32%

Strengths

· 148 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3240, 2687, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3240, 2687, 1296

Auto

35.4 20%

Teleop

104.5 58%

Endgame

38.9 22%

Strengths

· 1296 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185.7pts

Blue projected score194.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9
Score range: 165–216
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 115.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368Season APEX352.5

23.2Auto35.4

98.5Teleop104.5

58.3Endgame38.9

14Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	35
teleop	61	28
endgame	59	12
foul	20	5
total	158	80

Result

Final score

158 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 71.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree