Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.81 – 126.9

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 22.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.5 ±11

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 32.95Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 38.61Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 16.25Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.7 ±11.7

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 31.97Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 14.85Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 80.08Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2728, 436, 10518

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2728, 436, 10518

Auto

20.6 23%

Teleop

45.3 50%

Endgame

24.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6672, 9786, 2689

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6672, 9786, 2689

Auto

41.2 35%

Teleop

59.5 50%

Endgame

17.8 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.8pts

Blue projected score126.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.1
Score range: 67–148
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 115.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.5Season APEX266.7

20.6Auto41.2

45.3Teleop59.5

24.3Endgame17.8

6Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	40
teleop	45	32
endgame	25	15
foul	5	0
total	93	87

Result

Final score

93 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree